Star Wars SLAMMED: Surprise Box Office Plunge

STAR WARS CRUMBLES

The most storied franchise in cinema history just posted its weakest opening-night numbers since Disney took over Star Wars — and the story behind that number is more complicated than the headline lets on.

Story Snapshot

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu pulled in approximately $12 million in Thursday night previews, the lowest Thursday preview total for any Disney-era Star Wars theatrical release.
The figure fell below Solo: A Star Wars Story’s $14.1 million Thursday preview gross, long considered the franchise’s commercial floor under Disney.
Deadline tracking revised opening-weekend projections downward from an early range of $90 to $95 million to approximately $80 million before the weekend began.
The same $12 million figure ranked fifth among all Memorial Day Thursday previews, putting it on par with Captain America: Brave New World, Dune 2, and other major tentpole releases.

The Number Disney Did Not Want Trending

According to Comscore data cited in trade reporting, The Mandalorian and Grogu collected around $12 million in Thursday night previews. ^[3] That figure is not just a data point — it is a franchise timestamp. Solo: A Star Wars Story, widely regarded as the Disney-era Star Wars stumble that nearly halted spinoff production entirely, posted $14.1 million in Thursday previews. ^[1] The new film came in below that mark. When the film that killed the spinoff pipeline is now your ceiling, something worth examining is happening inside the franchise.

‘THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU’ has earned $33M in its opening day at the domestic box office.

The lowest for a Star Wars film under Disney. pic.twitter.com/YvA1HjkgMH

— Cosmic Marvel (@cosmic_marvel) May 23, 2026

Deadline’s tracking model, as reported in pre-weekend commentary, initially projected the film could open between $90 and $95 million before settling on a revised target of approximately $80 million. ^[2] If the film lands at that figure, it would represent the lowest-grossing domestic opening weekend for a Disney-era Star Wars theatrical release. That is a remarkable sentence to write about a property Disney paid $4 billion to acquire in 2013.

Context That Complicates the Narrative

Before treating $12 million as a five-alarm fire, the full picture deserves a look. The same reporting that flagged the franchise low also noted the film ranked fifth among all Memorial Day Thursday preview performances. ^[1] It matched Captain America: Brave New World, Dune 2, and Project Hail Mary on the same metric. ^[1]

Those are not embarrassing comparisons. Memorial Day weekend draws families and casual moviegoers, not just the preview-night superfans who typically inflate Thursday numbers for franchise films. The audience composition alone can shift these figures meaningfully.

The preview total is also described as approximate — “around $12 million” — meaning the figure has not been reconciled through a final audited studio report. ^[1] Box office estimates at the preview stage are provisional by design, and the industry routinely revises them through the weekend. That caveat does not make the number meaningless, but it does mean the franchise-low label was applied to an estimate rather than a final tally. Precision matters when the margin between this film and Solo is only $2 million.

What the Numbers Cannot Tell You

Thursday preview grosses measure one narrow slice of theatrical demand. They do not measure why people bought or skipped tickets, whether marketing reach was sufficient, how premium large-format screen allocation compared to prior releases, or what casual audiences plan to do over the full holiday weekend.

The claim that low previews signal franchise fatigue is a reasonable inference, but it remains an inference. No exit polling, no pre-sale abandonment data, and no consumer sentiment survey is attached to the $12 million figure. ^[1]^[2] The number is real; the diagnosis of what caused it is still open.

Disney's 'Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu' tallies lowest Thursday preview sales in franchise history – CNBC #trending

— Lisa Adams (@LisaAdams588700) May 22, 2026

What is harder to dismiss is the trajectory. Disney’s Star Wars theatrical output since The Rise of Skywalker in 2019 has generated more controversy than box office momentum. The Mandalorian television series built genuine affection for Din Djarin and Grogu, but translating streaming loyalty into theatrical ticket sales is not automatic.

Fans who watched every episode on Disney Plus for free are now being asked to pay premium prices to see a continuation in theaters. That behavioral shift is real, and no amount of contextual caveats fully explains it away. The $12 million preview figure may be provisional. The broader question it raises about where this franchise is headed is not.