Millions of Americans cast ballots before Election Day this year, and the early numbers show registered Democrats showing up in bigger numbers than Republicans in several key states.
Quick Take
- North Carolina saw 201,609 people vote early in person on day one, up nearly 47% from 2022, with Democrats outvoting Republicans by almost 28 points.
- Georgia’s early and mail voters leaned Democratic too, based on primary-history estimates showing about 50% Democratic participants versus 36% Republican.
- Nationwide, more than 9.5 million early and mail ballots were already in by October 19.
- No Kings rallies held across the country pushed voters toward early voting, though organizers called the events nonpartisan.
- Experts caution early numbers measure timing, not final outcomes, since Republicans often vote more on Election Day itself.
North Carolina’s Early Vote Shows A Clear Party Gap
North Carolina’s first day of early in-person voting told a striking story. The state board of elections recorded 201,609 ballots cast, a jump of nearly 47% from the 137,387 counted on day one in 2022. Registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans among those voters by almost 28 percentage points, a far wider gap than the two-point edge Democrats held on day one in 2024.
By October 17, North Carolina had logged 501,762 early and mail votes total, well ahead of the 362,628 recorded at the same point in 2022. Party breakdowns showed registered Democrats made up 45% of early and mail voters, compared to just 20% registered Republicans and 35% unaffiliated voters, according to voter file data tracked alongside state election records.
Georgia And The National Picture Tell A Similar Tale
Georgia doesn’t register voters by party, so analysts instead look at primary voting history to estimate political leanings. By that measure, roughly 50% of Georgia’s early and mail voters in 2026 had a history of voting in Democratic primaries, compared to 36% with Republican primary history. The remaining 13% had no primary voting record at all, making their leanings harder to pin down.
Zoom out to the national level, and the early turnout numbers are massive. NBC News tracked more than 9.5 million mail-in and early in-person votes cast across the country as of October 19, a sign that millions of voters are choosing to skip Election Day lines entirely this cycle.
No Kings Rallies Pushed The Early Voting Message
No Kings rallies held in cities nationwide, from Boston to Chicago, urged attendees to vote early rather than wait for Election Day. Organizers described the gatherings as nonpartisan events, even though they grew out of demonstrations opposing President Trump. Similar rallies played out in Florida and New England, with local organizers repeating the same early-voting message to crowds gathered in city squares and parks.
Why These Numbers Don’t Guarantee A Final Outcome
Strong early numbers for one party don’t settle an election. Research on mail and early voting consistently finds that making voting easier boosts overall turnout by a few percentage points but rarely shifts which party ultimately wins. One major study of universal vote-by-mail found it had no measurable effect on either party’s final vote share.
Early vote data across the county, but especially in Nevada, increasingly suggest that concerns about USPS handling of mail ballots are changing how some Democrats vote, complicating comparisons with 2024.
Per @JohnRSamuelsen’s comparisons, Democrats appear to be shifting toward…
— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) October 19, 2026
Election watchers in North Carolina have already seen Democratic early-vote advantages shrink as Election Day approached in both 2022 and 2024, meaning snapshots taken weeks out can look very different from final results. NewsNation reported that Republicans have historically turned out in bigger numbers on Election Day itself, which could narrow or erase the current gap before polls close. That pattern is the honest caveat behind every early-vote headline this cycle. Voters who show up early tell us something real about enthusiasm and organization, but they don’t tell us who wins. That verdict still belongs to the ballots not yet cast, and to the millions of Republicans who, if history holds, haven’t voted yet at all.
Sources:
nbcnews.com, nytimes.com, nbcboston.com, cnn.com, newsnationnow.com
